ONS

Industry reacts to inflation rising to 10.1% and average house prices reaching £296,000




The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose to 10.1% in the 12 months to September 2022, up from 9.9% in August and returning to July’s recent high.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) has also gone up to 8.8%, compared to 8.6% in the previous month.

According to the ONS, rising food prices made the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI annual inflation rates between August and September — similar to previous months.

Meanwhile, falling pump prices for motor fuels made a large offsetting downward contribution.

The ONS has also published the latest House Price Index, which revealed that the UK average house price rose by 13.6% over the year to August 2022 — down compared to the previous month's figure.

The average UK house price was £296,000 in August 2022, which is £36,000 higher than this time last year.

Industry experts react to latest ONS inflation and house price index figures

This section will be constantly updated throughout the day — check regularly for more comments from industry experts

3:07pm

Vikki Jefferies, proposition director at PRIMIS:
 

“Despite a cooling in the rate of house price growth reflected in today’s statistics, prices remain strong and the housing market continues to prove itself resilient. It’s also positive to see the new Chancellor has re-confirmed the Stamp Duty cut first announced in September. This is particularly the case for first-time buyers who will see their threshold on stamp duty exemption rise to £425,000 as a result. 
 
“Overall demand for properties remains healthy and the mortgage market remains a flurry of activity, with many buyers continuing to rush to lock in rates. In this ever-evolving mortgage landscape, brokers have a vital role to play in ensuring their customers understand new developments, as well as what the best products available to them are, in light of these.”

 

10:38am

Mark Harris, chief executive at SPF Private Clients:

"The uptick in inflation to 10.1% will do nothing to calm borrower concerns about rising interest rates.

"The reversal of many of the mini-Budget measures has stabilised base rate expectations, although a one percentage point increase is still expected at next month’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

"While mortgage rates are expected to settle at lower levels, particularly short-term fixes, the ‘big six’ lenders will be wary about reducing pricing too far too soon in order to manage volumes.

"Even if these rates do edge downwards, there are still concerns about households coming off recent low fixes, as borrowers will see a significant jump in monthly payments, just as the cost of living is soaring."

10:00am

Paresh Raja, CEO at MFS:

"Every house price index has taken on added intrigue of late. Everyone — from buyers and sellers to brokers and lenders — is watching to see how the market reacts to rising interest rates, high inflation and the prevailing economic and political uncertainty that has defined the start to Liz Truss' premiership.

"Throw in the stamp duty cuts, one of the few policies to survive from Kwasi Kwarteng's ill-fated 38-day reign as chancellor, and it makes predicting the direction of property prices very challenging.

"For now, as the ONS data shows, the sense is that demand will likely dip — the result of rising rates more than anything — but limited supply will ensure enough competition in the market to keep prices stable, if not growing. The stamp duty reductions, particularly for first-time buyers, should help keep the market buoyant; but, unlike the stamp duty holiday of 2020/21, there is no deadline to this tax cut, so do not expect the same frenzied response of buyers rushing to benefit.

"Certainty is a rare, but highly sought-after commodity right now. After several weeks of mortgages being pulled and some lenders no longer accepting new applications, borrowers and brokers are desperate to know what products they can access and at what price.

"Lenders that can act quickly, transparently and commit to deals from the outset will emerge from this challenging period with their reputations enhanced. And only with certainty and clarity from lenders can buyers act with confidence; so, the performance of lenders will be key to how the market performs in the months to come."

9:45am

Paul McGerrigan, CEO at Loan.co.uk:

“As the soap opera in numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street unfolds, the publication of September’s inflation figures is a sobering reminder of the breadth of challenge the UK faces.

“High energy bills driven by the war in Ukraine continue to be the main contributor to remarkable inflation conditions. 

“While the government’s initiatives to control the cost of energy until April 2023 will restrict further large increases, the retreat to more normal levels (remember the Bank of England’s 2% target) still looks a distant dream.

“The mortgage mayhem of the last fortnight driven by the mini-Budget debacle, coupled with a potentially record-breaking interest rate rise from the MPC on 3rd November will put significant pressure on the CPIH, with increases inevitable in the coming months.

“This will impact millions of households, and borrowers need to assess their position continually and act where needed — the role of mortgage brokers and financial advisers is more important than ever.”

Jatin Ondhia, CEO at Shojin: 

“Dizzying levels of inflation have become the norm in 2022, so investors and financial markets will likely not react as sharply to today’s figures as they may have done previously. 

“What’s more, inflationary pressures have also been somewhat overshadowed of late due to the political and economic turbulence that have characterised Liz Truss’ first month as PM. 

“That said, the combination of sustained high inflation and rising interest rates makes for a challenging macroeconomic environment, with many investors naturally left wondering how best to manage the situation.

“Ultimately, investors must take the time to reassess their inflation toolbox and consider which assets are likely to help cushion their portfolios against further disruption. 

“Maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and ensuring investments remain aligned with long-term goals will be key in navigating the challenges.”

Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software:

“The rise in inflation announced this morning, albeit small, reflects the continuing rise in energy prices and basics in the supermarket. 

“Given that the war in Ukraine continues to rumble on, we are to an extent being held to ransom and rising prices are as such inevitable. 

“The next meeting of the MPC on the 3rd November will no doubt end in another increase in interest rates. The question is how high can the Bank of England go? Mortgage rates are at the highest many have ever seen, which has to affect the first-time buyer market more than any other.  

“Historically, benefit levels have been driven using the figures in September, it will be interesting to see if this policy is used when benefits are set for next April.  

“Given the recent fiscal U-turns, the current level of borrowing and the ‘return to austerity’, it is questionable that benefits will be tied rigidly to the current rate of inflation. 

“It is most definitely a fine line that the new chancellor will be walking in the coming months.”

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